To play or not to play?

That is the question.

This week, the Cincinnati Bengals will visit the New York Jets (8:30 p.m. on NBC) in a game with playoff implications.

For the Jets, it is do or die. A win means that they will be in playoffs and will likely play at Cincinnati in a wild-card matchup. A loss, well, should knock New York out of the playoff picture.

For the Bengals, it is almost meaningless. A win, could give Cincinnati the No. 3 seed instead of the No. 4 seed. A loss, well, should give New England the No. 3 seed regardless of what it does on Sunday.

The difference of the No. 3 seed versus the No. 4 seed could mean a possible AFC Championship game in Cincinnati and a trip to San Diego instead of Indianapolis. While it is unlikely, if Cincinnati wins (as the No. 3 seed) its wild-card game and then defeats San Diego on the road it could host the AFC Championship if New England or its wild-card opponent defeats Indianapolis.

So if the Patriots lose to Houston on Sunday and the Bengals defeat the Jets it would do nothing but help Cincinnati on its quest to the Super Bowl, right?

Well, probably not. If the Bengals defeat the Jets then that opens the door for AFC North rivals Baltimore and Pittsburgh to play the Bengals for the third time this season. It also could mean a matchup against either Denver or Houston, both of which beat the Bengals this season.

On the other hand, the Bengals could rest their starters and study what the Jets do this Sunday. Then the following week use their starters and gameplan to defeat New York. However, just reading that plan gives the impression that it would backfire.

If the Patriots and Bengals both lose, New England would likely win the “strength of victory” tiebreaker for the No. 3 seed. Currently, the Patriots hold a four-game advantage after Chicago upset the Vikings last night (it would have been a five-game lead if Minnesota won).

As far as the Patriots’ (as the No. 3 seed) opponent, it appears that it will be Baltimore (if the Ravens can beat the Raiders). If Oakland gets the upset, it would likely be Denver (if the Broncos can best the Chiefs) or Pittsburgh (if the Steelers can defeat Miami). To add to the confusion, Houston, Jacksonville and Miami can still qualify.

The only thing that is certain is that New England and Cincinnati will both have a home game in the wild-card round. That being said, I would be willing to bet that both teams rest their starters against New York and Houston.

However if New England and Cincinnati decides that it wants that No. 3 seed and both win this Sunday, Pittsburgh would likely leap into the playoffs. If Denver wins against KC and Baltimore loses to Oakland, the Steelers would play Cincinnati as the No. 5 seed (because Steelers beat Denver early this year). However, if Baltimore wins then Cincinnati will play the Ravens and New England will play Pittsburgh.

Personally, I believe that is highly unlikely because both Cincinnati and New England will probably rest its starters meaning Houston and New York will likely win.

Due to New York’s common opponents’ record, it would be the No. 5 seed over Baltimore. So, it will likely be New York at Cincinnati and Baltimore at New England in the playoffs.

A Ravens win against New England would send Cincinnati to San Diego (assuming Cincinnati could beat the Jets in the playoffs), meaning if the Ravens also upset the Colts then the Bengals could theoretically host the AFC title game with a win against Chargers.

However, a Patriots win against Baltimore would mean the Bengals or the Jets would be forced to go to Indy with no hope of hosting the AFC Championship.

Geesh!

Overall it is all very confusing. To see all the scenarios, click here.

Other good links include:

NFL.com
Tiebreaker Expert Joe Ferreira

Tagged as: Cincinnatii Bengals playoffs, New York Jets playoffs, NFL playoffs